Likelihood Ratios: พื้นฐานความน่าจะเป็นในเชิงเงื่อนไข (Conditional Probability)

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🔬 Mathematical Forms

🔸 LR⁺ (Likelihood Ratio for Positive Test)

Definition:

LR+ = P⁡(T+∣D+) P⁡(T+∣D−)

As raw outcomes:

LR+ = True Positive False Positive

As test characteristics:

LR+ = Sensitivity 1−Specificity

🔹 LR⁻ (Likelihood Ratio for Negative Test)

Definition:

LR− = P⁡(T−∣D+) P⁡(T−∣D−)

As raw outcomes:

LR− = False Negative True Negative

As test characteristics:

LR− = 1−Sensitivity Specificity

🔶 LR⁺ (Likelihood Ratio for a Positive Test)

📌 Definition

The ratio of the probability of a positive test in someone with the disease to the probability of a positive test in someone without the disease.

LR + = P ⁡ ( T + ∣ D + ) P ⁡ ( T + ∣ D − )

🧠 Clinical Interpretation:

LR⁺ tells how much more likely a positive result is in someone with the disease than in someone without the disease.

  • LR⁺ > 10 → Strong evidence for ruling in disease
  • LR⁺ ~1 → Test is not useful for confirmation

Structure for LR + :

LR+ = Test Positive People with Disease Test Positive People without Disease = True Positive False Positive = Sensitivity 1−Specificity

🔷 LR⁻ (Likelihood Ratio for a Negative Test)

📌 Definition

The ratio of the probability of a negative test in someone with the disease to the probability of a negative test in someone without the disease.

LR− = P ⁡ ( T− ∣ D+ ) P ⁡ ( T− ∣ D− )

🧠 Clinical Interpretation:

LR⁻ tells how much more likely a negative result is in someone with the disease than in someone without the disease.

  • LR⁻ < 0.1 → Strong evidence for ruling out disease
  • LR⁻ ~1 → Test is not helpful in exclusion

Structure for LR - :

LR− = Test Negative People with Disease Test Negative People without Disease = False Negative True Negative = 1−Sensitivity Specificity

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